On yesterday's Sports Blast I said I that I thought that Jed Lowrie would be a top 5 shortstop in the American League. I got a few laughs from my co-hosts but then they couldn't come up with anyone better. Let's see if there are in fact 5 American League shortstops better than Jed.
A.L. East
Yankees: Derek Jeter
At first glance you might say Jeter is better than Lowrie but going by 2008 I think that Lowrie can match Jeter's numbers. Jeter's avg/obp./slg. have all dropped each of the last 3 seasons and I don't think that all of a sudden at the age of 35 they are going to go back up. Last season Jeter's line looked like this: .300/.363/.408. Lowrie last season in 260 at bats batted .258/.339/.400. Don't forget he played hurt in September after getting hot in August. August line: .284/.353/.490 September line: .213/.333/.313
If he stays healthy for a full season I think he could put up better numbers than Jeter had last year. When you consider that Jeter keeps trending downward and Lowrie keeps improving it looks even more likely. Even though his best years are behind him, I would still put Jeter in the top 5 shortstops in the A.L.
Blue Jays: John Macdonald
Macdonald is great with the glove but doesn't know how to hit. I'm sure he tried really hard when he was younger to learn how to hit but it just never clicked. His career high ops+ in a season with over 200 at bats is 66. Lowrie wins this one.
Orioles: Cesar Izturis
Last season Izturis had a whopping 14 extra base hits in 414 at bats. Lowrie had 30 in 260 at bats, If you add up Izturis' '07 and '08 he had a combined total of 30 extra base hits in 728 at bats. Another win for Lowrie.
Rays: Jason Bartlett
A .329 obp. isn't very good. A .361 slg. is not very good either. Bartlett cranked out 29 extra base hits in 454 at bats.
Looking at this divison, Jeter is the only one I could see putting up similar numbers to Lowrie.
Rankings so far
1. Jeter - Due to a longer track record.
2. Lowrie
3. Bartlett
4. Izturis
5. Macdonald
A.L. Central
Indians: Asdrubal Cabrera
Another young switch hitting shortstop who is making the move over from second base. Cabrera had similar numbers to Lowrie last year. Cabrera batted a .259 compared to Lowrie's .258. Also he had a slightly better obp. .346 to Lowrie's .339. Lowrie outslugged him by 34 points .400 to .366. I think both Cabrera and Lowrie will improve on their numbers from last year so for the sake of this argument we will call it a push and put Cabrera in the top 5.
White Sox: Alexi Ramirez
He isn't good with the glove and he doesn't seem to know that if the pitcher throws the ball out of the strike zone you don't have to swing at it. He only walked 18 times last year in 500 at bats. Since he does have some pop in his bat, hitting 21 home runs last year, I guess I will put him in the top 5.
Royals: Mike Aviles
Aviles quietly had a good rookie season finishing 4th in the Rookie of the Year balloting though he should have finished second behind Evan Longoria. My only problem with Aviles is that he was 27 and will be 28 come opening day this year. Is he just a one year wonder like Bob Hamelin? Or is he just someone who took a long time to develop? The truth is he is just keeping shortstop in KC warm until their top prospect Mike Moustakas is ready. I think Aviles falls off this season but for now I would put him in the top 5.
Twins: Nick Punto
He will be 31 and has never had a season with an ops+ above 100, so he is a below average hitter his whole career and I don't see that changing.
Tigers: Adam Everett
If you combined Everett and John Macdonalds hitting skills you would probably get Jeff Frye. One thing about Everett is that he is the best defensive shortstop and gets screwed out of gold gloves every year because he can't hit, which of course should have no bearing on gold gloves, but the writers have voted for the likes of Derek Jeter and Michael Young for gold gloves.
Rankings after 2 divisons
1. Jeter
2. Lowrie
3. Aviles
4. Ramirez- would be higher but needs to learn how to take pitches.
5. Cabrera
A.L. West
Rangers: Elvis Andrus
Andrus is a good up and coming shortstop who is a big upgrade with the glove over Michael Young who got moved to third due to more or less sucking in the field (do you know he won the gold glove last year, have I mentioned that yet?). He came over from the Braves in the Mark Teixeira trade in 2007 and batted around .300 in Double-A last season. Don't expect him to hit much as a rookie but if we did this list 2 seasons from now I bet Andrus is in the top 5.
Mariners: Yuniesky Betancourt
You can't make the top 5 if you walked 17 times in 559 at bats.
Angels: Erik Aybar
Doesn't get on base,.314 obp, doesn't hit for power, 26 extra base hits in 346 at bats, etc. I know Brandon Wood hasn't done much the few times he has been called up the last two seasons, but I would rather give Wood the starting job and let him play for a full season and see what he can do. Remember 3 years ago when Wood and Howie Kendrick were suppose to be the best up the middle combo in baseball? That hasn't really gone according to plan.
A's: Bobby Crosby
He hit 22 home runs in his first 545 at bats, in his last 1,608 at bats he has 33. He hasn't had an ops+ above 100 since 2005. Has there been a worse four year stretch of Rookies of the Year besides Eric Hinske, Angel Berroa, Bobby Crosby, and Huston Street?
Final Rankings
1. Jeter
2. Lowrie
3. Alvies
4. Ramirez
5. Cabrera
Now I know I was talking about certain players obp. and Lowrie's was .339 which wasn't great, but like I said before if he didn't play hurt in September his numbers would be much better. It's not as though he is some no name guy that came out of nowhere. He has been a top prospect with the Sox the last few years. I think his numbers will improve greatly this season. I also think he wins the starting job over Lugo and will be in the running for an All Star spot come July.
Friday, February 13, 2009
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