This week is Championship week so you have a bunch of conference tournament games all week. It's like a little tease before the big dance next week. Below are my picks to win from the major conferences - now I'm not picking the best teams from each one as we have seen in recent years ('06 Syracuse and '08 Georgia) the best teams don't always win. Also, look for the sleepers for each tourney.
Big East: Such a stacked conference with UConn, Pitt, and Louisville at the top of the heap. They all have a chance at getting a 1 seed for the big dance. I think Pitt. might already have one locked up which gives UConn and Louisville a little extra motivation. I'm picking UConn who will have a tough road as they most likely will have to beat Syracuse, Pitt. and Louisville. If they do that they are a lock for a #1 seed.
Sleeper could be Providence. They are a bubble team that has a lot to play for, and they should get by Depaul. This would put them against Louisville who beat them by 18 a few weeks back, but the Friars were actually winning that game with 14 min. left when the Cardinals went on a run. That game was also at Freedom Hall but at MSG Friar fans would only have a short drive to get to there,
while Louisville fans might opt to wait to travel the following week. I think the Friars can pull off an upset or two in this tourney.
Big 12: Even though Kansas won the Big 12, I still think that Oklahoma is the better team, and I think that both of these teams have a shot at a #1 seed. That said, I'm going with Kansas because they look to have the easier road to the finals: most likely Baylor and Kansas State. OU would have to go through Oklahoma State and Mizzou. Also, I think Kansas has been playing all season with a little chip on their shoulder due to the fact that they are defending champs and nobody really thought they would be this good after losing Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush, Darrell Arthur, Russell Robinson, Sasha Kaun, and Darnell Jackson from last years team. You can't really blame people for doubting that they could be a title contender again.
Sleeper - Texas A&M has won 6 in a row which has clinched their spot in the tourney but a good showing here could improve their seed.
Big 10: The only way Michigan State doesn't win this tourney is if they get bored knowing that they have bigger goals this season. I don't see that happening as the Spartans have a shot at a #1 seed. Real quick - I know it seems I've mentioned about 10 teams for four 1 seeds, but I figure UNC and Pitt. have a 1 seed clinched, then you have either UConn or L'ville, whichever team does better in the Big East tourney. This leaves Kansas/Oklahoma, whoever wins the big 12, Michigan State, and Memphis. All of those teams have a shot at a number 1 seed. Which leads me to believe Mich. St. will win this tourney.
Sleeper- Purdue has struggled down the stretch, but I think Matt Painter will have his team ready for the Big 10 tourney and try to generate some momentum for next week.
ACC: UNC is going to get a 1 seed no matter what, even if they lose their first game against either Virginia Tech or Miami. Roy Williams and this whole teams have known all season that they are title contenders and their real season begins next week. With Ty Lawson banged up, I think Roy Williams will take it easy in the ACC tourney. That opens the door for Duke, Wake, Clemson and FSU. All of them are in the tourney already and while people assume I'll take Duke, I'm going with Wake Forest mostly because I feel as though most fans don't realize how good they are. After going through a rough 9 game stretch where they went 4-5, they won their last 4 including a nice win on Sunday against Clemson. If Wake wins this tourney they will lock up a number 2 seed.
Sleeper- Miami is on the bubble and if UNC decides to take it easy against Miami and the 'Canes pull of the upset then they are off the bubble. I also think that Jack McClinton could have a Gerry Macnamara type performance as a Senior not wanting to end his career playing in the NIT.
SEC: A down year for the SEC with the top team being LSU who had zero out of conference quality wins. Still they went 25-6 because the SEC was so bad. I'm going with South Carolina to win this tourney, but really anyone can win this. I would not be surprised if Georgia had another miracle run like last year.
Sleeper- I'm tempted to say Georgia just for fun, but I'm going with Kentucky because a great program like that needs to be in the big dance and not the NIT and they know it, so they will be playing with sense of urgency as they do not want to be the first Wildcat team not to make it since 1991.
PAC 10: I'm taking Washington who has quietly put together a nice season. Isaiah Thomas is following in Nate Robinson's footsteps as short player who is a star for the Huskies.
Sleeper- Arizona State. Even though they lost 3 out of their last 4 games, I think they could ride James Harden to win the PAC 10 tourney.
Alright, well this week should have plenty of good games leading up to selection Sunday.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
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