Sunday, April 19, 2009

A.L. Central

I realize we are starting the third week of the baseball season, but honestly my opinions haven't changed from the pre-season based on such a small sample of games. My goal was to get these done by the All Star Break so I've made it with three months to spare.

Twins: I like their pitching with Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey. But I just don't like the hitting. Justin Mourneau is solid and once Joe Mauer comes back I'm sure he will be his amazing self. After that, the rest of their sorry line up does not get on base enough and lacks a lot of power. Being in such a weak division, their pitching will keep them in it until the end but I think they'll come up a little short.

Royals: Losing Alex Gordon hurts but they weren't going to make the playoffs anyways. Good to see Zack Greinke pitching well and Kyle Davies was a steal from the Braves considering they only gave up Octavio Dotel. Not a big fan of their line up, but if Mark Teahan and Billy Butler improve they won't be that bad. Another year without postseason baseball in KC.

White Sox: They won a weak divison last year thanks to Gavin Floyd and Jon Danks having their best career seasons. I think Danks is good and I don't think he will regress, but Floyd is a due for a big drop off. I'm not sure if Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko, and Jim Thome will be able to stay healthy all year to provide that middle of the order pop. Thome is also 38 and his numbers dropped last year which people probably didn't notice because he still hit 34 home runs, but last season his batting avg. did drop 30 points; Obp. dropped 48 points; and his Slg. dropped 60 points. I wouldn't be shocked if Thome hit fewer than 30 homers for the first time since 1995 (I'm not counting the 2005 season where he only played in 59 games). Alexi Ramirez is a frustrating guy. He reminds me of Alfonso Soriano with the quick wrist and a lack of paitence. I'm not saying he hates to walk, but come on, only 18 walks in 509 at bats you have got to be swinging at a lot of bad pitches. If he can improve on this he will be one of the best players in the game.

Indians: The Indians were 12 games below .500 at the All Star Break last season and ended up getting to exactly .500 to close out the year at 81-81. Now that they seem to be healthy, and have added a few pieces, I think that the tribe will return to October. Grady Sizemore is my pick to win MVP - he is just fun to watch do anything: hit, run, field, chew gum, everything he does he does well. Victor Martinez is healthy butTravis Hafner will never be his 2005 self (he will be better than last season). Cliff Lee was not a one season wonder like some people think. In fact, his bad 2007 was more of a fluke, as he was a real solid pitcher before then, and I think he will have another good season. I'm a Fausto Carmona believer, and even though he is off to a rough start I think he will turn it around and anchor this rotation with Lee. I don't love this Indians team, but this divison could go in many directions and I've decided to follow the Tribe's way.


Tigers: First off: Miguel Cabrera is not going anywhere. I love when someone says that the Sox were looking at Cabrera and everyone assumes that the Tigers are shopping him around. Of course the Sox are looking at him - he is in the argument for second best hitter in the game with a few others (Mr. Pujols being number 1 of course). Besides Cabrera, I'm not a big fan of the rest of their line up and I guarantee that Magglio Ordonez will spend time on the D.L. Carlos Guillen's numbers have dropped each of the last 3 seasons which is never a good sign for someone getting into their mid 30s. The starting rotation will be better than last season and Justin Verlander looks to be healthy even though is off to a slow start. I think he will be closer to his '07 self than '08. Armando Gallarraga had a very good rookie year in '08 and looks to continue that. Rookie Rick Porcello breezed through the minors after getting drafted in '07 and should be in the Tigers rotation for years to come. They will be in the hunt along with the rest of the divison, but will wind up on the outside of the playoffs.

Final Standings:
1. Indians
2. Twins
3. Tigers
4. White Sox
5. Royals

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