Philadelphia Phillies

When the Phillies won the World Series last year I really didn't see it coming. I had picked them to finish third behind the Mets and Braves last season, and for all you Phillies fans you'll be happy to know that once again I'm not picking them to make the playoffs.

I'm not picking them for the same reasons I didn't pick them last year (which is mainly because of their pitching). I love Cole Hamels and I think that he showed that he is the guy you want toeing the rubber in a must win game in last year's playoffs. But this year he is already dealing with an injury and while I know it's minor, this is a guy who hasn't been healthy his whole career dealing with injuries in the minors and missing time since arriving with the big club. When you also consider the fact that last season, including the playoffs, he threw 83 more innings then he had in 2007 this might leave Hamels looking at an injury plagued season. Who really knows though, he looked great in the World Series last year with no signs of slowing down, so maybe he'll bounce back and have another great season. Still I think that there could be cause for concern in Philly.

After Hamels you have Brett Myers, who has regressed since his best season in 2006, but with this being a contract year there might be some hope that he'll return to his 25 year old self, not to mention that after a rough first, he was able to come back and put together a good second half last season. In the first half he had an ERA of 5.84 and allowed 24 home runs, while walking 44 and striking out 88 in 102 innings while in the second half in 88 innings he allowed only 5 home runs, walked 21 and struck out 75 batters with an ERA of 3.06. The strikeouts are about the same but the main reason for the drop in his ERA is fewer base runners and fewer home runs which is tough playing in that ballpark.

Behind them is the ageless wonder Jamie Moyer who somehow at the age of 45 had a real solid 2008 season, but I just don't see him being able to repeat that. I know that he has surprised people these last few years, but it has to end at some point. I don't think that he is going to turn into Matt Young all of a sudden, but to ask for another campaign with an ERA+ of 118 seems unlikely. Fun fact: Jamie Moyer beat Steve Carlton in his major league game. After that, you have Joe Blanton and Chan Ho Park, Blanton isn't the worst fourth starter but I'm curious to see how he does in a full season at Citizens Bank Park after pitching for Texas at Ameriquest Field.

The bullpen was great last season, led by Brad Lidge who had one of the best seasons of any closer in the history of the game. But there is no way he can match or top that. I have to wonder if last season Lidge, along with Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin and others, just all had one of those lightning in a bottle seasons.

I really don't have anything bad to say about this line up except that Ryan Howard is overrated due to his RBI totals every year. He came in second in the MVP voting when he was probably about the fourth most valuable player on his own team. Another bad sign is that Howard's BA./OBP./SLG. numbers have dropped every year since 2006 which is not a good sign for a player creeping up on thirty. But of course people don't talk about that because he is still knocking in 140 runs on account of having great hitters in front of him. Chase Utley is the best second baseman in the game and has looked good this spring after coming back way ahead of time from offseason hip surgery and should have another great season at the plate and in the field.

Missing from the line up will be Pat Burrell who signed with the Rays after the Phillies let him go. The Phils replaced him with Raul Ibanez who is 5 years older. This move made no sense and the Phils should have offered Burrell arbitration and kept him for around 10 million for one year or at worst lose, him to someone and receive a first round draft plus a sandwich pick as he was a type A free agent. Instead they don't offer it to him, and let him sign with the Rays and they receive zilch. They then turn around and sign someone who is not as good with the bat as Burrell and only slightly better in the field. To top things off, they now have to give Seattle their first round pick for signing the 37 year old to an absurd 3 year 30 million dollar deal. Not a good move by the Phils.

Though when you are coming off your city's first championship in 25 years, and franchise first in 28, I guess fans will let this one slide.